They Say It’s About the Numbers…

This is a guest post by my friend, Stephanie Shaw. I’ve asked her to contribute to our blog, as I’d like to have a few more voices besides mine, and we want to talk about a few other things that are relevant these days.

If you like the post, let us know — post in the comments or send me an e-mail.

From Stephanie:

They say it’s about the numbers…

Ok, so I’m not sure why I expected anything less from The Arizona Republic, but in July 25, 2010 Sunday paper there is an EXCLUSIVE Republic Poll that says, “Arizonans back law, also want reforms – Majority would let some migrants stay.”

It caught my eye. I’m actually debating my own stance on immigration in Arizona. Should they stay or should they go? Either way I believe SB 1070 has been turned into a bunch of media hype that clouds the real issues and tries to get news paper sold by detracting from the actual purpose of the bill.

Back to the article. Arizona’s population according to the US Census Bureau, the population of Arizona is estimated in June of 2009 was at 6,595,778. The definition of “majority” according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary 3a: “a number or percentage equaling more than half of a total.”

So in other words, at least 3.3 million Arizonans would let some migrants stay, right?

Well, not so fast. The article states that 616 Arizona adults were polled. Let’s do the math on their poll: 616 divided by 6,595,778 = .009 percent of Arizonans were polled.

Ok, so I’ll agree that my numbers are skewed too. Of the 6.5 million Arizonans, how many of them are adults? If we take the population estimate, and subtract the number of “Persons under 18 years old”, which was 26.3% of the population, we get:
6,595,778 – (6,595,778*.263) = 4,861,088 Arizona Adults.

So in other words, at least 2.4 million Arizonans would let some migrants stay, right?

Let’s take a look at the numbers provided by the article again, now that we have a more apple-to-apples comparison: 616 divided by 4,861,088 = .013 percent of Arizonan Adults were polled.

Ahhhh, that makes me feel so much better! Now we’re getting somewhere! Now I’m co¬nvinced that the majority of Arizonans back the law and want reforms!

But of course, that would be silly to assume that the numbers are still representative. The first paragraph of the article states, “A majority of Arizonans support Senate Bill 1070, though the numbers may be smaller than previous polling suggested, an Arizona Republic poll has found.” So that means that the previous polling is representing that people are changing their minds, or that there were errors or…

If you look at the representation of the article, it says that the poll by the Republic was of 616 Arizona adults. The other poll was 500 likely voters in Arizona. Are these the same group? I can’t help but think of my Arizonan adult friend who in the past hasn’t voted because he thinks that politics are a bunch of posers manipulating a social system of popularity. Kind of reminds me of this article.

We should all READ what articles are representing, ASK questions about how they are relevant, and most importantly, THINK about what the purpose is of information you are getting. Headlines are there to grab your eye, and get you to read the article.

But we’ve also been taught to not judge a book by its cover, so why should we judge an article by its headline?

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