Eighth Straight Month of Decline

Is Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors serious? Read this quote.

Yun said he believed the drop in sales, which left activity in October 20.7 percent below the level of a year ago, was nearing its end. He said a greater willingness of lenders to start offering jumbo loans again and the use of Federal Housing Administration-insured loans in place of subprime mortgages will help generate a rebound. Read the full story here.

He continues, “I don’t anticipate any further major sales declines,” Yun said. If sales do continue to fall, “it would be a major concern” and “would raise the risk of an economic recession.” What? Wow!

Talk about drinking the Kool Aide. “…generate a rebound?” Yeah, maybe sometime in 2011.

But right now, many economists say there is a 40% chance of a full blown recession. While the U.S. economy is looking down the barrel of a loaded gun, Yun is predicting a housing turn around.

Mr. Yun, here are a couple of points to think about.

- Home supplies are at a 22 year high.
- Sales pace are on par with 1999
- Sales down 20% in the past year
- Sales down 33% in the west
- Median sales price down 5%

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